Since October, the domestic market of aniline for July began to decline in prices, shake down on the bottom.Ended November 27, the domestic mainstream price fell to 8000 yuan (tons of price, similarly hereinafter), low price has dropped to 7800 ~ 7900 yuan, two months deep down more than 11%, its lowest in four years.Enterprise percentage of loss-incurring enterprises continue to expand, resulting in more enterprises shut down or BanTingChan, some companies even plans to shut down production.A line to know from the market, the recent raw material of pure benzene falling stabilization, enterprise to limit load, the downstream procurement situation is expected to reverse the effects of three factors such as, and cut interest rates policy of positive promotion, aniline afternoon transfer in the bottom of the opportunity.
Analysis according to the personage inside course of study, this round of market in addition to a sharp fall due to weak downstream demand, the upstream raw material down, also the domestic environmental governance caused by abnormal downstream production and macro economy, the influence of weak cannot fully reflect the market law of development.It is understood that due to the current sales into losses, rised enterprises around the psychological enhancement, began to implement drop negative valuation strategies to deal with the current dilemma.
Afternoon will have the following advantages:
- pure benzene has stabilised form foundation support
, according to market feedback information by the end of November 27, pure benzene (main petroleum benzene) mainstream domestic price in 7000 ~ 7000 yuan, a plate of signs.Most middlemen and downstream manufacturers worry that the existing stock is low, once encounter market turnover will lead to inventory.Another analysis according to the personage inside course of study, by the hydrogenation of benzene and benzene oil price difference is big (700 ~ 900 yuan), petroleum benzene rapid rebound is unlikely, but deep down again space is limited, shock stabilized will become mainstream.Aniline, therefore, in the current enterprise under the background of pure benzene inventories are generally lower, once pure benzene bottoms out, for aniline market which is closely linked with the movements of pure benzene will form the basis for support, don't rule out the possibility of with rose.
- support purchasing situation in reverse to demand
Learned, aniline, fell to the current price, shandong yantai wanhua MDI production companies such as supporting the aniline unit produced is not outsourcing to be economical.These enterprises in November after the maintenance period is expected to be a large number of foreign procurement warehousing, enterprises must form purchase window, injection for aniline under low load and low price market rebound momentum.In addition, parts of the country in November downstream enterprises caused by environmental protection infrastructure abnormal parking will also come to an end.End demand still exists, dyes, additives, medicine, pesticide, and other enterprises will soon start, restore normal purchase quantity.Aniline downstream reactive dyes is still in the recovery growth at the same time, as well as exports edged up, both for the current sluggish market provides a good support.
-- the load down to low limit of the enterprise
According to incomplete statistics, at present the domestic aniline enterprise comprehensive utilization has fallen to low, in four years at around 30%, achieve production load low limit.According to hebei, jiangsu enterprise reflects several aniline, according to the current selling price of 8000 yuan, in combination with pure benzene prices, enterprises have full access to losses.No downstream products of aniline sales enterprises have larger cost pressure, this is also one of the reasons why some companies plan production halt production.Many production companies, says from the consideration on the cost accounting, each device starts fell below 40%, the possibility of enterprise profit is very small.Therefore, based on the present status of the enterprise construction, market prices falling space also is not big.According to relevant data, nearly three months prices dropped more than pure benzene fell by more than 5% of aniline, lead load down deep in the enterprise also provides support for the market.
Interest rates for the commodity market
In addition, China's central bank on November 21, suddenly announced to cut interest rates, good commodities markets.Announcement since November 22, financial institutions, the benchmark one-year deposit interest rate by 0.25% to 2.75%, and benchmark one-year loan interest rate by 0.4% to 5.6%, this is the first time since July 2012 to the central bank cut interest rates, commodity currency and commodity prices.Central bank also said that China has basically met the market-based reform of interest rates further forward basic condition.China will timely through the issuance of certificates for enterprises and individuals, continue to push forward with the orderly deposit interest rate marketization.There is a market analysts pointed out that the financial easing and encourage investment policy, will be conducive to enterprise's financing and expants exports.Policy is also stable alline afternoon the market base.Industry is expected to usher in a new bottom turn an opportunity.